“I’m not sure what I’m supposed to be doing. I’m just following the people who have been here before. I’m still trying to not look very stupid.”

That little bit of adorableness comes from the top prospect in the San Francisco Giants organization, Brandon Belt, in a story that ran in USA Today earlier. Makes him sound very humble compared to Bryce Harper, doesn't it?

Belt is 22 and was drafted out of the University of Texas, where he majored in education. There's some huge awesome points right there. He also, according to what Buster Posey says in that article up there, hit ".350" in Fresno last year and should be totally fine. Here's what you need to know about this kid, who, although he's probably starting in Fresno next season, should be ready for the Majors really, really soon. He comes across as so genuine, and I love that.

• Quotes about Belt, from the blog where I found that picture of him.
• Sabean compares Belt to Posey, which really isn't all that surprising.
• Minor League Ball's comparison between Belt and Braves prospect Freddie Freeman. Worth a read.
• Belt is ranked 26th out of MLB.com's Top 50 prospects this year.

With his upside being as ridiculously high as it is, I think we can expect a September call-up at the very least. If not, he'll be up before that, as he likely deserves to be. He's hard-working, educated and totally skilled - what's not to like about him?

Bryce Harper thinks he can make the Nationals' roster out of Spring Training

Ah, the optimism of youth. Remember when you were eighteen and you thought you could do anything? (I do, too. It was only four years ago.)

Bryce Harper, who is still eighteen, is hoping to make the big league club out of Spring Training this season. Says he:

"Why can't it be realistic? Why can't I come in here and think I can make this team. I've exceeded expectations my whole life."

I don't want to be the one to break it to you, Bryce, but you're eighteen and you haven't had any professional experience yet. Yes, young players can break through - Jose Reyes was nineteen when he made his Mets debut. However, the difference is that Jose had significant Minor League playing time before being called up and had proven that he could handle the grind of a full season. Bryce doesn't have that to his name yet - he spent time playing for a community college, which, of course, doesn't play for the full-length season that MiLB clubs do.

Exceed expectations all you like, Bryce, but you're still likely going to start in Hagerstown this season. I'll meet you there if you like and we can see how you're feeling at that point, okay? But for now, don't set unrealistic goals for yourself - you'll just end up beating yourself up when you don't achieve them right away. It's about hard work, Bryce, not just talent.

Westmoreland is recovering!

I'm posting here today because Alex Speier wrote an article on Ryan Westmoreland that is an absolute must-read. It's a wonderful story and seeing Westmoreland working back is beautiful.

Basically, go read it. It's right here.

Is Ryan Lavarnway the Red Sox's eventual solution at catcher?

With Jason Varitek aging, Jarrod Saltalamacchia having issues with yips, Victor Martinez signing with the Tigers, and Dusty Brown now with the Pirates, the future of the Red Sox behind the dish is a little uncertain. There are a couple of Double-A options, at least, and one of those two is Ryan Lavarnway. (The other, Luis Exposito, has perhaps received more attention, partially due to his entertaining Twitter account.)

Lavarnway is a Yaler. He was signed in 2008 in the 6th round, and he spent some time in the Arizona Fall League this past autumn. He started catching his sophomore year of college, picking up the duties full-time during his junior season. Catching, clearly, is still a work in progress, as he himself admits, but over the past two seasons he's made enough strides to make his way to Portland. He can't be too bad at it, in that case.

Lavarnway's progress as a hitter is just fine, which is a big part of the reason he's progressed to Portland so quickly. He's an extremely polished, patient hitter, and his plate discipline is very advanced. Perhaps most importantly, however, is his work ethic, which is the biggest reason that he continues to improve and maintain his skills as he advances up the Minor League ladder. He's worked hard enough to gain the catching skills necessary to be in Double-A already, and with continued perseverance, he could easily find himself in Pawtucket this season. If anything, he'll likely end up as a good defensive catcher in the mold of Josh Thole, but he won't be on the level that Varitek is (granted, Tek is a benchmark for all young catchers these days, and he's set the bar ridiculously high).

And hey, don't forget that Lavarnway is very smart. That's an advantage if there ever was one.

Photo of Ryan Lavarnway by Stephen Fritzer.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis Exists

So I finally got a chance to watch some Rookie Program videos, and I found this one of Mets prospect Kirk Nieuwenhuis. For whatever reason, I've noticed that the Mets discuss their minor leaguers less than some other teams do (I'm looking at you, Boston), and I almost wonder if that's because Omar had this tendency to trade prospects away so frequently that nobody put stock in the kids.

Anyway, deep thoughts aside, meet Kirk.

Once you get to know him by watching this video, you can proceed to make Star Trek jokes about him with me (I admit it, I screamed "KHAAAAAAAAAAN!" at him last year at Spring Training). Although he's a dark horse out of Azusa State, he's risen up through the farm system and he was in Buffalo at the end of the season last year. He'll provide some decent outfield depth for the Mets should they choose to hang onto him, especially since Beltran isn't what he used to be prior to all of his injuries.

Basically, what I'm saying is keep an eye on him this season regardless of whether he begins it in Buffalo or Binghamton. Because he'll impress you, I can guarantee it.

Cross-Post: Steph makes a guess about Norfolk

I'm the Orioles correspondent for G9 Sports, and I just wrote a post on what I'm projecting will be the starting lineup and rotation for the Norfolk Tides this season. That can be read here!

With Spring Training finally on the way, look for more updates here in the near future - there are camp battles to be won and new minor leaguers waiting to emerge!

On the Injury-Prone: Reese Havens

Today's task: Who gets injured more frequently, Rich Harden or Reese Havens? And is either still valuable to a club?

Havens was drafted out of South Carolina in 2008, the same season as Ike Davis. Ike has clearly panned out well and is performing just fine at the Major League level. Havens, however, has only succeeded in working his way up to Double-A Binghamton so far. He has hit .261/.363/.467 in 152 pro games since his debut with 26 homers and 80 walks. Not bad at all, but then you remember that those career totals have been compiled over three years.

Three years.

Havens has had a string of injuries since signing - his elbow, groin, quadriceps, hand, oblique and back have all given him trouble, making him even more injury-prone than my favorite klutz, Jed Lowrie. I would consider Havens to still have potential, certainly, but he has problems staying healthy, which is sorely injuring (no pun intended) his prospect status. He's definitely a more than decent hitter - 149 hits in 570 pro at-bats isn't bad at all - and although his defense is only average (he recently switched from shortstop to second base), he would likely be able to hold his own at the position even though he's no Dustin Pedroia.

Here's the question, though: is Havens worth the risk?

Let's compare Havens to another oft-injured RH, Rich Harden. Although Harden is a pitcher, he presents a similarity to Havens - a high upside with a risk of injury higher than average.

As of the time I'm writing this, Harden has pitched for Oakland from '03-'08, Chicago (NL) from '08-'09, and Texas in '10. His first major injury occurred in 2005, when he had an oblique problem that kept him on the bench for a month. He then pitched well until he injured his shoulder in late August, which kept him out for another month. Despite this, he finished the season with strong numbers (10-5; 2.57 ERA, 121 Ks in 128 innings). 2006 and 2007 went less successfully, however, as injury-plagued Harden pitched in only 16 games total, starting 13 of those. Prior to that, he had appeared in 68 games for Oakland.

In 2008, Harden was traded to the Cubs mid-season. By Harden standards, this was an excellent year - 25 starts (13 in Oakland, 12 in Chicago), 10-2 record, 2.07 total ERA. He notched a career high in strikeouts (181) and a career low WHIP (1.061). More importantly, he spent this season playing instead of riding the pine, and he revealed just how good he actually could be when healthy. Comparatively, 2009 and 2010 were sharp contrasts from 2008 - the stats ballooned comparatively, and in 2010 he ended up on the DL again with a gluteal strain.

Reese Havens' minors numbers make him appear to be similar -almost like a position player equivalent to Harden. With the exception of 2009, in which Havens played in 97 games in High-A St. Lucie, he's only been in 55 games total in the years 2008 and 2010. Although comparing a position player to a pitcher is like comparing apples to oranges, the risk-reward with a player like Havens is similar to Harden. Do you retain a player who is highly skilled but frequently hurt, or do you cast them to the wind if they don't actually play enough due to being injured so often?

Oakland's answer was to pick Harden up with a one-year contract for 2011. Now it remains to be seen what the Mets do with Havens. If he remains healthy, he'll likely make it to the Majors by 2012 or 2013, but if his frequent health issues remain, there is a chance he may be labeled as a bust and will toil in the Minors or possibly be released or retire.

Only Reese's health can decide his future.